Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:47:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc46…79c4 sports 274 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$376 (-3%) realized −$376 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate30%81W / 192L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$144est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$247
7 days+$329
14 days+$38
30 days−$177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$555
crypto 29% −$89
other 6% +$75
politics 4% −$184
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -10.0% -18.5% 30% 30% +3.7%
≤30d 145 -6.7% -15.6% 30% 30% -11.8%
≤90d 273 -4.8% -13.9% 30% 29% -15.4%
all 273 -4.8% -13.9% 30% 29% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 29% -15.4%
10% -22.1% 28% -23.5%
15% -29.6% 28% -30.9%
20% -36.5% 27% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$35 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$376
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses81 / 192
Est. fees paid−$144
Open positions1
Markets (closed)273 / 274
History coverage94d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 273 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Barcelona vs. Valencia Barcelona 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 180 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Felipe Meligeni Al Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Gustavo Heide Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Paul Jubb Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $41 −$40 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Henrique Rocha vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 22 $51 +$110 +216%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $18 +$67 +365%
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $204 +$348 +171%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -95%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 20 $136 +$90 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$53 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$41 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $52 +$112 +214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 20 $52 +$44 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 20 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 20 $52 +$76 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 20 $52 +$93 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$43 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 20 $63 −$60 -96%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $105 −$88 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$7 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $68 −$65 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $63 +$106 +169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$65 +249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $99 −$95 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$58 +220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 19 $27 −$25 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Barcelona vs. Valencia BUY Barcelona 42¢ $73 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Felipe Meligeni Al BUY Felipe Meligeni Alves 9¢ $10 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Gustavo Heide BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 10¢ $10 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Paul Jubb BUY Pierre-Hugues Herbert 15¢ $31 3h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $41 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Henrique Rocha vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Henrique Rocha 37¢ $51 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 31¢ $51 5h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $18 25h
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv BUY Maccabi Tel-Aviv 46¢ $51 26h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $31 26h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 28h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 24¢ $10 28h
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $20 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 94¢ $552 46h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 19¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 34¢ $204 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $119 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $45 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $130 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 37¢ $20 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.52 · official $0.09 (match) · 537 history records