Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:12:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc4b…1617 world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 442d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate31%13W / 29L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$2
other 25% $0
crypto 5% $0
economics 4% $0
tech 4% $0
politics 3% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 19 -0.4% -9.9% 32% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 19 -0.4% -9.9% 32% 0% -9.3%
all 42 +0.3% -9.2% 31% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 2% -9.3%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

442d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses13 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage442d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $48 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $28 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $7 −$1 -16%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $64 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $44 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $13 +$1 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $52 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $87 +$3 +4%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 31 $45 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $48 −$3 -5%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $42 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $47 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $41 +$2 +5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $46 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Remco Evenepoel win the Tour de France 2025? Jul 10 $23 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $23 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in July? Jul 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on July 9 at 5PM ET? Jul 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before August? Jul 08 $23 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $23 $0 -1%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $19 −$1 -3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100K and $101K on May 23? May 20 $5 $0 -1%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $31 $0 +1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Apr 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Apr 08 $7 +$1 +9%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 07 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 06 $11 $0 +2%
Will Ivica Zubac win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Apr 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? Apr 04 $20 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 04 $5 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $48 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $17 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $31 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $37 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $7 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $43 23h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $4 29h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $4 31h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $12 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $13 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $8 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $20 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $28 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $6 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $7 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $26 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $5 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $1 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $38 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $11 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 13d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $13 13d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $13 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $49 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $49 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $36 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $12 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $48 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 131 history records