Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:58:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc4d…2544 world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 461d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$1 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate48%14W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% $0
other 34% $0
crypto 3% $0
politics 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.6% -11.0% 25% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 15 -0.7% -10.1% 27% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 15 -0.7% -10.1% 27% 0% -9.5%
all 29 -4.0% -13.2% 48% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -21.5% 0% -18.2%
15% -29.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -36.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

461d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses14 / 15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage461d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 74¢ 76¢ $51 $52 +$1 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 50¢ 44¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $8 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $30 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $46 +$1 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $122 −$1 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $69 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $4 −$1 -18%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $3 $0 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $103 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $29 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $10 $0 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $31 +$2 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $46 +$1 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -9%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Dec 14 $1 $0 +5%
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13? Jun 10 $7 $0 +6%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jun 09 $8 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 06 $6 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 05 $3 −$1 -20%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $9 $0 +4%
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 24 $2 $0 +2%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday? Mar 19 $11 $0 +3%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 11-17? Mar 17 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $51 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $23 21h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $6 21h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $1 21h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $20 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $9 23h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $28 40h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $19 40h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $46 45h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $39 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $47 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $48 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $5 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $42 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $6 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $41 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $3 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $0 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $4 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.36 · official $51.41 (match) · 104 history records