Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:45:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc4e…b730 other 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 449d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate37%16W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$2
other 24% +$3
politics 7% $0
crypto 6% $0
culture 5% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% −$1
sports 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.7% -8.9% 40% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 12 +2.3% -7.4% 42% 8% -8.9%
≤90d 12 +2.3% -7.4% 42% 8% -8.9%
all 43 -1.1% -10.5% 37% 7% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 7% -9.2%
10% -19.0% 2% -17.9%
15% -26.9% 2% -25.8%
20% -34.0% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

449d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses16 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage449d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $31 +$1 +4%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $68 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $12 +$1 +6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $1 $0 +19%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $20 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Pittsburgh Steelers? Jun 08 $9 $0 -4%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $14 −$1 -11%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? May 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 45.0% on May 30? May 28 $14 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 27 $14 $0 -0%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 26 $14 −$1 -8%
Will Oliver Bearman finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 25 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? May 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2025 French Open? May 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 23 $8 +$11 +125%
Will 'Seiko' win Crunchyroll's Best Supporting Character Award for 202 May 22 $2 $0 +18%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 21 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $9 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? May 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1900 on May 16? May 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? May 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1600 and $1700 on May 9? May 08 $9 $0 +1%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? May 06 $14 −$2 -12%
Feds raid Jay-Z before April? Mar 27 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $36 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $36 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $7 19h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $7 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $32 24h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $29 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $2 27h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $27 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $5 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $31 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 45h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 45h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 46h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $12 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $23 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $35 12d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $13 13d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 13d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 14d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $31 14d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $31 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $13 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $21 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 14d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $30 15d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $30 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $20 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 114 history records