Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:27:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
FC 0xfc50…f8de sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$59 (-4%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$16
other 5% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -1.1% -10.5% 57% 57% -10.0%
≤30d 14 -1.1% -10.5% 57% 57% -10.0%
≤90d 14 -1.1% -10.5% 57% 57% -10.0%
all 14 -1.1% -10.5% 57% 57% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 57% -10.0%
10% -19.1% 50% -18.6%
15% -26.9% 36% -26.5%
20% -34.0% 14% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$48 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 27 $242 +$62 +26%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $167 −$45 -27%
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm Jun 26 $561 −$198 -35%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 26 $202 +$67 +33%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $54 −$2 -4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $30 −$30 -99%
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 25 $195 +$35 +18%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics Jun 25 $20 +$12 +59%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5) Jun 25 $10 −$3 -27%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $14 +$6 +39%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $20 +$9 +46%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $15 +$6 +38%
Barcelona vs. Valencia Jun 24 $82 +$77 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Connecticut Sun 100¢ $305 41m
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 79¢ $242 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 41¢ $39 23h
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm SELL New York Liberty 19¢ $38 23h
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm BUY New York Liberty 56¢ $117 23h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 49¢ $117 23h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 52¢ $128 23h
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm SELL New York Liberty 47¢ $128 23h
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm BUY New York Liberty 71¢ $196 24h
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm SELL New York Liberty 58¢ $196 24h
New York Liberty vs. Seattle Storm BUY New York Liberty 72¢ $248 24h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Toronto Tempo 100¢ $248 24h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 69¢ $173 27h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 37¢ $52 27h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Los Angeles Sparks 32¢ $21 27h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Los Angeles Sparks 43¢ $29 27h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $54 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 30h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 100¢ $213 46h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 81¢ $174 47h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Atlanta Dream 37¢ $16 47h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Atlanta Dream 46¢ $20 47h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics SELL Minnesota Lynx 100¢ $32 2d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 42¢ $10 2d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics BUY Minnesota Lynx 62¢ $20 2d
Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5) SELL Indiana Fever 43¢ $7 2d
Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5) BUY Indiana Fever 57¢ $10 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 71¢ $14 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records