Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:44:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FC 0xfc51…1119 world 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 254d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$16 (+2%) realized +$17 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate39%12W / 19L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$3
other 21% +$13
politics 13% $0
crypto 4% $0
culture 4% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 +0.5% -9.1% 43% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 14 +0.5% -9.1% 43% 0% -8.7%
all 31 +3.1% -6.7% 39% 10% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 10% -7.2%
10% -15.6% 6% -16.1%
15% -23.8% 3% -24.2%
20% -31.2% 0% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×33.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×40.2 per $1 lost it wins $40.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$17
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses12 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage254d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 62¢ 61¢ $42 $41 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $74 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $17 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 -4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $36 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $14 $0 +3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $39 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $39 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $35 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $3 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $4 $0 +2%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 17 $2 $0 -5%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $24 +$4 +18%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 12 $6 +$1 +24%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $16 +$7 +43%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Oct 19 $21 $0 -0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 19 $21 $0 -0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 18 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in October? Oct 18 $1 $0 +8%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025? Oct 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 17 $22 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 14 $23 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in October? Oct 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 13 $23 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 62¢ $42 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 30h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $33 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $17 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $16 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $20 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $17 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $37 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 24¢ $17 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $9 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 80¢ $38 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $36 12d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $36 13d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $36 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $13 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $14 13d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 13d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 42¢ $13 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 42¢ $26 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 41¢ $39 14d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $35 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.87 · official $40.87 (match) · 119 history records