Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:34:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc52…7bfa crypto 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$440 (-61%) realized −$440 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate39%9W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$434
7 days−$434
14 days−$425
30 days−$450
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$450
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +4.0% -5.9% 38% 31% -84.4%
≤30d 23 -18.4% -26.2% 39% 22% -69.1%
≤90d 23 -18.4% -26.2% 39% 22% -69.1%
all 23 -18.4% -26.2% 39% 22% -69.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 22% -69.1%
10% -33.2% 17% -72.0%
15% -39.7% 17% -74.7%
20% -45.6% 13% -77.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -66% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$38 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$440
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses9 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage16d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 27 $21 +$8 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 27 $11 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 27 $11 +$15 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 27 $8 −$7 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 26 $241 −$228 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 26 $91 −$85 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $112 −$104 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 26 $12 −$11 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 26 $0 +$3 +563%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $17 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $12 −$11 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $48 +$54 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $106 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $105 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $22 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $21 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $21 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $21 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $22 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $22 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $21 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records