Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:55:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc54…d4dc crypto 32 markets active 26d ago coverage 540d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$58,866 (-44%) realized −$58,866 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate9%3W / 29L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,153per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$26,539
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$51,419
politics 25% −$3,997
other 2% −$3,100
culture 0% −$502
world 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-32.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 -91.1% -92.0% 0% 0% -93.9%
≤90d 9 -91.1% -92.0% 0% 0% -93.9%
all 32 -25.5% -32.6% 9% 9% -59.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.6% 9% -59.2%
10% ← realistic here -39.0% 9% -63.1%
15% -44.9% 9% -66.7%
20% -50.3% 9% -70.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -93% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$4,987) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +44% → late -95% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
50.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12,901 vs −$3,491 · ×3.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

540d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$58,866
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses3 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage540d
Avg bet$4,153
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $2,980 −$2,712 -91%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $4,987 −$3,360 -67%
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 03 $0 $0 -100%
Will voter turnout be less than 50% in the 2026 Seoul mayoral election Jun 03 $25 −$15 -62%
Will voter turnout be at least 65% in the 2026 Seoul mayoral election? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province gubernatorial election Jun 02 $8 −$8 -96%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $20,673 −$20,122 -97%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $312 −$300 -96%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 08 $502 −$502 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 01 $22,717 −$22,702 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? Sep 17 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
Bayrou out as French PM by September 30? Sep 08 $1,900 −$1,900 -100%
French confidence vote fails? Sep 08 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $6500 in August? Aug 19 $1,600 −$1,600 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Aug 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 16 $11,000 −$10,998 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August? Aug 16 $1,842 +$10,223 +555%
Will Ethereum reach $4600 in August? Aug 16 $5,600 +$26,211 +468%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Aug 14 $2,720 −$2,720 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? Aug 09 $576 −$576 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in August? Aug 07 $10,292 −$10,291 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August? Aug 07 $4,117 −$4,116 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in August? Aug 07 $5,200 −$5,200 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 05 $5,200 −$5,200 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in August? Aug 05 $29 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 03 $24,949 +$2,270 +9%
Will Lee Jae-myung win Seoul (서울) in the 2025 Korean Presidential elec Jun 03 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Lee Jun-seok be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? Apr 04 $335 −$84 -25%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? Dec 24 $11 −$11 -100%
MSFT shareholders vote for Bitcoin investment? Dec 10 $9 −$9 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 3¢ $47 25d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 3¢ $3 25d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 3¢ $1 25d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 3¢ $6 25d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 3¢ $0 25d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 3¢ $53 25d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 3¢ $30 25d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 2¢ $319 25d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 2¢ $56 25d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 2¢ $195 25d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 1¢ $7 25d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 1¢ $11 25d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 1¢ $436 25d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 3¢ $128 25d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 2¢ $58 25d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 2¢ $5 25d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 2¢ $1 25d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 2¢ $2 25d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 2¢ $45 25d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 2¢ $20 25d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 2¢ $88 25d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 2¢ $3 25d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 2¢ $20 25d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 2¢ $1 25d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 2¢ $2 25d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 1¢ $54 25d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 3¢ $83 25d
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 25d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 3¢ $121 25d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 1¢ $99 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1891 history records