Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:07:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FC 0xfc54…db0e crypto 775 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,340 (-7%) realized −$1,335 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate61%452W / 294L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day52.3pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$862now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days−$3,190
14 days−$1,369
30 days−$1,431
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% +$813
world 25% −$3,191
other 21% +$915
crypto 18% −$95
weather 4% +$66
politics 2% −$30
culture 1% +$60
finance 1% +$24
economics 0% $0
tech 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -8.4% -17.1% 63% 55% -7.9%
≤30d 746 -5.0% -14.1% 61% 57% +2.7%
≤90d 746 -5.0% -14.1% 61% 57% +2.7%
all 746 -5.0% -14.1% 61% 57% +2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 57% +2.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 54% -7.1%
15% -29.8% 51% -16.1%
20% -36.7% 48% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$20 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$862
Realized−$1,335
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses452 / 294
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions25
Markets (closed)746 / 775
History coverage20d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day52.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 746 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? No 88¢ 88¢ $416 $416 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $101 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 88¢ 84¢ $88 $84 −$4 (-4%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Over 90¢ 90¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-1%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Yes 44¢ 78¢ $29 $51 +$23 (+78%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+2%)
Will Gavin McKenna be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 94¢ 93¢ $19 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 82¢ 84¢ $16 $17 +$0 (+2%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 54¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 78¢ 80¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+3%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Over 73¢ 72¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 22? Yes 52¢ 40¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 58¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 47¢ 55¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+16%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 54¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or below on June 22? Yes 6¢ 12¢ $2 $5 +$2 (+98%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-33%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C or below on June 22? Yes 24¢ 18¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-76%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 22? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-65%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$8 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 21? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 21? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 21? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 277 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $148 +$34 +23%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $51 +$10 +19%
Will "Toy Story 5" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatomete Jun 21 $15 +$2 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $20 +$4 +18%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $13 +$7 +57%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $44 +$26 +60%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $20 +$6 +29%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $12 +$8 +70%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $6 +$4 +60%
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Jun 20 $84 −$2 -2%
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary Jun 20 $176 −$25 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 21? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $12 +$8 +65%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $15 +$5 +32%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $13 +$7 +60%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m Jun 20 $10 +$4 +42%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $11 −$10 -99%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $134 +$16 +12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $102 +$20 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 20? Jun 19 $47 +$2 +5%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
No one announced as next James Bond? Jun 19 $19 +$1 +3%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? Jun 19 $5 +$6 +108%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $39 +$11 +27%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $20 +$5 +26%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $15 +$5 +34%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $37 −$37 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 Week of June 15 Jun 18 $43 +$3 +6%
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $40 +$9 +23%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $81 −$80 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 +$5 +67%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? Jun 17 $46 $0 +0%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$2 +94%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $74 +$26 +36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $4,246 −$3,193 -75%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $104 +$46 +44%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ Jun 17 $27 −$9 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $35 +$4 +12%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $12 +$8 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $27 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 88¢ $212 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $181 1h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $60 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $36 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $15 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatomete SELL Yes 99¢ $17 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $101 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $16 10h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 82¢ $16 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 18h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 19h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 44¢ $18 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 19h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 19h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 19h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 19h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $205 19h
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? SELL No 82¢ $82 19h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $148 19h
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary SELL No 76¢ $151 19h
Will Gavin McKenna be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes 94¢ $19 19h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $861.81 · official $861.82 (match) · 1495 history records