Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:51:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FC 0xfc55…b21d finance 435 markets active 2h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,810 (+4%) realized +$3,177 · open +$633
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate64%274W / 154L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$5,586now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$135
14 days+$787
30 days+$2,627
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$2,852
finance 27% +$952
tech 10% +$407
other 6% −$144
economics 4% +$68
crypto 3% +$300
politics 0% +$2
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +5.6% -4.5% 70% 40% -13.8%
≤30d 51 -0.7% -10.1% 71% 47% -3.6%
≤90d 164 -2.4% -11.7% 66% 48% -3.0%
all 428 -10.3% -18.9% 64% 40% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 40% -4.9%
10% -26.6% 21% -14.0%
15% -33.7% 11% -22.3%
20% -40.2% 6% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -21% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$48 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$5,586
Realized+$3,177
Unrealized+$633
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses274 / 154
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)428 / 435
History coverage155d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 428 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? No 70¢ 81¢ $1,473 $1,711 +$238 (+16%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 64¢ 62¢ $1,160 $1,125 −$35 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 79¢ 80¢ $860 $865 +$5 (+1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 75¢ 81¢ $787 $856 +$68 (+9%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? No 45¢ 84¢ $343 $638 +$295 (+86%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? No 78¢ 92¢ $328 $388 +$61 (+19%)
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? Yes 50¢ 53¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? Jun 27 $411 +$8 +2%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? Jun 27 $411 −$47 -12%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 25? Jun 25 $62 +$38 +61%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 24? Jun 24 $157 +$43 +27%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 24? Jun 24 $44 +$18 +41%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $136 +$64 +47%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $172 −$31 -18%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $252 −$252 -100%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $204 +$12 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 23 $1,032 +$12 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $1,405 +$192 +14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $3,427 +$300 +9%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $236 +$54 +23%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $22 +$5 +23%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $1,362 −$302 -22%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $1,260 +$99 +8%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 18? Jun 18 $866 +$270 +31%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $2,176 +$226 +10%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 18? Jun 18 $571 +$115 +20%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 18? Jun 18 $649 +$37 +6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 18 $228 −$33 -15%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $560 +$130 +23%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,609 +$451 +28%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 16? Jun 16 $983 −$667 -68%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,910 +$84 +4%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 15? Jun 15 $708 +$5 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $1,039 +$161 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $1,657 −$803 -48%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $2,340 +$606 +26%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 15 $30 +$4 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 15 $600 +$28 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $152 −$72 -47%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $528 −$368 -70%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $620 +$4 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $371 −$41 -11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $888 +$77 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1,078 +$222 +21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $640 +$156 +24%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $1,274 +$325 +26%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $390 +$180 +46%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 07 $500 +$80 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 06 $1,539 +$620 +40%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June? Jun 06 $10 −$1 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $280 −$280 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 03 $1,276 +$221 +17%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $90-$100 in June? Jun 02 $15 −$4 -24%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 1? Jun 01 $90 −$88 -98%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 1? Jun 01 $72 +$10 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 31 $822 +$249 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 79¢ $860 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 81¢ $842 1h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? BUY No 71¢ $426 9h
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 10h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? BUY No 72¢ $524 11h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? BUY No 72¢ $4 11h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? BUY No 72¢ $45 11h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? BUY No 72¢ $4 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $451 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $20 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $9 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $8 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $9 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $23 13h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY No 43¢ $0 14h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY No 43¢ $42 14h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $146 14h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 81¢ $1,685 14h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY No 46¢ $300 20h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $325 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 64¢ $447 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 64¢ $20 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 64¢ $3 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 64¢ $170 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 14¢ $745 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? BUY No 79¢ $4 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? BUY No 79¢ $12 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 31¢ $8 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? BUY No 78¢ $312 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,586.19 · official $5,586.89 (match) · 2718 history records