Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc59…f1e5 crypto 22 markets active 3d ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$17 (-18%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%6W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$19
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$11
other 11% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-41.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -28.8% -35.5% 30% 30% -21.4%
≤30d 22 -35.2% -41.4% 27% 27% -25.8%
≤90d 22 -35.2% -41.4% 27% 27% -25.8%
all 22 -35.2% -41.4% 27% 27% -25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.4% 27% -25.8%
10% -47.0% 27% -32.9%
15% -52.1% 18% -39.4%
20% -56.8% 18% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses6 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage8d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$9 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$12 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$9 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$9 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $7 −$5 -65%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 10d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 10d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records