Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:28:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc59…a500 other 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-17%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$8
sports 30% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 50% -21.8%
≤30d 4 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 50% -21.8%
≤90d 4 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 50% -21.8%
all 4 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 50% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 50% -21.8%
10% -17.7% 50% -29.2%
15% -25.6% 25% -36.1%
20% -32.9% 25% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 59¢ 64¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$5 -57%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +75%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$4 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 7m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $4 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $8 4h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 4h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $4 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $8 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.38 · official $5.38 (match) · 9 history records