Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:49:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FC
0xfc5a…07b6
sports · 287 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$2,430 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,789 · open −$359
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized+$2,789
Unrealized−$359
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses122 / 163
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$1,185
Open positions2
Markets (closed)285 / 287
History coverage155d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 2 History 285 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11,825
7 days−$10,753
14 days−$8,622
30 days−$1,370
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Cuiaba: Noelia Zeballos vs Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez 34¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson Kaitlin Quevedo 37¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Cuiaba: Martina Capurro Taborda vs Gabriella Price Jun 12 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $174 −$113 -65%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $401 +$388 +97%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson Jun 12 $43 −$42 -98%
Exact Score: Paris FC 1 - 2 Paris Saint-Germain FC? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Vitinha: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Lehecka vs Tiafoe Jun 12 $65 −$65 -100%
Martin Landaluce vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $173 −$173 -100%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Landaluce (+1.5) Jun 12 $299 −$298 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs Giron Jun 12 $328 −$328 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $36 −$23 -64%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $31 −$1 -4%
Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs Shimabukuro Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 12 $239 +$235 +98%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $129 +$79 +62%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs Clement Tabur Jun 12 $41 −$15 -38%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $183 +$145 +79%
Fabian Ruiz: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Lille OSC vs. AJ Auxerre end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Paris FC 1 - 3 Paris Saint-Germain FC? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901 end in a draw? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $57 +$9 +15%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-05-17? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $27 −$2 -7%
Exact Score: Paris FC 0 - 2 Paris Saint-Germain FC? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 25.5 Jun 11 $41 −$22 -55%
Set 1 Winner: Chwalinska vs Andreeva Jun 11 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? Jun 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Pierluig Jun 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: 1H Moneyline Jun 11 $43 −$43 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Geneva Open: Raul Brancaccio vs Stan Wawrinka Jun 11 $139 −$86 -62%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: Draw at halftime? Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-26? Jun 11 $48 −$48 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Alexandra Eala vs Oleksandra Oliynykova Jun 11 $82 −$82 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 11 $91 −$91 -100%
Mensik vs. Fonseca: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $94 −$14 -15%
Club Cerro Porteño leading at halftime? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Brazzaville: Elijah Sanogo vs Ivan Marrero Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Mboko vs Boisson Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $53 +$9 +18%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: 1H Moneyline Jun 11 $39 −$39 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5) Jun 11 $28 −$28 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 11 $42 −$42 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Jakub Mensik vs Jan-Lennard Struff Jun 11 $102 −$55 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 94% +$2,728
other 5% −$2
crypto 1% −$318
world 0% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Cuiaba: Noelia Zeballos vs Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez BUY Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez 34¢ $122 1h
ITF Cuiaba: Noelia Zeballos vs Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez BUY Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez 34¢ $184 1h
ITF Cuiaba: Noelia Zeballos vs Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez SELL Noelia Zeballos 67¢ $306 1h
ITF Cuiaba: Noelia Zeballos vs Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez BUY Noelia Zeballos 55¢ $80 1h
ITF Cuiaba: Noelia Zeballos vs Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez BUY Noelia Zeballos 54¢ $41 1h
ITF Cuiaba: Noelia Zeballos vs Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez BUY Noelia Zeballos 55¢ $91 1h
ITF Cuiaba: Noelia Zeballos vs Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez BUY Noelia Zeballos 49¢ $41 1h
ITF Cuiaba: Martina Capurro Taborda vs Gabriella Price BUY Gabriella Price 11¢ $51 1h
ITF Cuiaba: Martina Capurro Taborda vs Gabriella Price BUY Gabriella Price 12¢ $3 1h
ITF Cuiaba: Martina Capurro Taborda vs Gabriella Price BUY Gabriella Price 12¢ $13 1h
ITF Cuiaba: Martina Capurro Taborda vs Gabriella Price BUY Gabriella Price 11¢ $16 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 22¢ $61 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 8¢ $61 2h
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter SELL Katie Boulter 100¢ $648 2h
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson BUY Kaitlin Quevedo 37¢ $43 2h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 17¢ $13 3h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $29 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $103 3h
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter BUY Katie Boulter 36¢ $204 3h
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter BUY Katie Boulter 30¢ $30 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $72 3h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 3h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $36 3h
Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs Shimabukuro SELL Shimabukuro 99¢ $1 3h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Sho Shimabukuro 54¢ $473 3h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 26¢ $203 4h
Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs Shimabukuro BUY Shimabukuro 99¢ $1 4h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 28¢ $36 4h
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter SELL Elena Rybakina 57¢ $141 4h
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter BUY Elena Rybakina 68¢ $100 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 131 -53.7% -58.1% 18% 18% -45.1%
≤30d 214 -8.2% -16.9% 37% 35% -12.3%
≤90d 273 +0.8% -8.8% 41% 39% -5.1%
all 285 +1.5% -8.2% 43% 40% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 40% -5.0%
10% -17.0% 38% -14.1%
15% -25.0% 33% -22.4%
20% -32.3% 31% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.58 · official $0.58 (match) · 957 history records