Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:26:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc5b…eb72 other 144 markets active 2h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,120 (+3%) realized +$1,020 · open +$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate44%62W / 79L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$379now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$144
14 days−$157
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$1,144
crypto 0% −$30
sports 0% −$4
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -15.0% -23.1% 43% 43% -35.3%
≤30d 22 +6.2% -3.9% 36% 32% -8.3%
≤90d 124 +2.7% -7.1% 46% 33% -2.1%
all 141 -2.4% -11.7% 44% 32% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 32% -6.8%
10% -20.1% 23% -15.7%
15% -27.9% 21% -23.8%
20% -34.9% 17% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -24% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$62 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$379
Realized+$1,020
Unrealized+$100
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses62 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)141 / 144
History coverage95d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Yes 24¢ 32¢ $198 $263 +$65 (+33%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $70 $103 +$33 (+48%)
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $23 −$22 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $202 +$74 +36%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $150 −$150 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 −$6 -39%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 +$18 +221%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $49 +$8 +17%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $18 −$6 -36%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 +$12 +188%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $21 +$2 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $75 −$57 -76%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $27 +$16 +61%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $42 −$17 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $3 −$2 -85%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $14 +$117 +850%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $106 −$94 -89%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $1,998 +$242 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $1 $0 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $30 +$66 +220%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 17 $62 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 16 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $78 +$17 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 08 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $255 +$145 +57%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 08 $33 +$67 +207%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 06 $990 −$10 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 02 $90 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $36 +$14 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 29 $1,754 +$187 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or higher on April 29? Apr 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $25 −$2 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $68 −$46 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $966 +$33 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $125 +$53 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $9 +$32 +369%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $19 −$14 -75%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $7 −$6 -73%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $8 −$7 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $7 +$4 +57%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $112 −$17 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $2,947 +$83 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $89 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 2h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $56 2h
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 2h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 2h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 2h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $13 2h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 2h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 2h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 2h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 2h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 2h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 2h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 2h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 2h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 2h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $379.41 · official $383.24 (match) · 1394 history records