Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:52:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FC 0xfc5b…1aa9 sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-5%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate46%12W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$12
14 days+$8
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% +$4
other 28% +$6
crypto 16% −$2
world 15% +$1
tech 6% −$4
politics 4% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +9.3% -1.1% 60% 50% +2.4%
≤30d 25 -0.5% -9.9% 44% 28% -8.9%
≤90d 26 -0.0% -9.6% 46% 27% -8.7%
all 26 -0.0% -9.6% 46% 27% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 27% -8.7%
10% -18.2% 15% -17.4%
15% -26.1% 12% -25.4%
20% -33.4% 12% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses12 / 14
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage102d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel Jun 26 $9 +$18 +196%
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Joaquin Aguilar Jun 26 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 24 $10 +$6 +64%
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $10 −$1 -8%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 21 $10 +$6 +59%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $10 −$4 -42%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $9 +$1 +8%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 18 $10 −$5 -49%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 18 $10 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $7 $0 -1%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 16 $10 $0 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $10 $0 -1%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 14 $11 −$2 -21%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -7%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $10 −$6 -56%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 04 $5 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel SELL Zizou Bergs 88¢ $27 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Zizou Bergs 29¢ $9 2h
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Joaquin Aguilar BUY Juan Bautista Torres 17¢ $6 2h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 55¢ $17 41h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $9 4d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 4d
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY New York Liberty 68¢ $10 4d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces SELL Las Vegas Aces 99¢ $16 4d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 62¢ $10 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 53¢ $6 6d
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 33¢ $10 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 6d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 18¢ $10 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $10 7d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 17¢ $10 7d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on SELL Yes 14¢ $5 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 92¢ $9 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 95¢ $10 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $10 8d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 27¢ $10 9d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $7 10d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 10d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 47¢ $10 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $10 10d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $9 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 53 history records