Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:41:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FC 0xfc5c…58bb other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$23 (-9%) realized −$19 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$1
sports 26% +$25
crypto 15% −$37
world 6% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +8.0% -2.3% 55% 55% -11.6%
≤30d 11 +8.0% -2.3% 55% 55% -11.6%
≤90d 11 +8.0% -2.3% 55% 55% -11.6%
all 14 -15.1% -23.2% 43% 43% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.2% 43% -19.9%
10% -30.6% 43% -27.6%
15% -37.3% 43% -34.6%
20% -43.4% 36% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$13 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$19
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)14 / 20
History coverage180d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 44¢ $14 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $19 +$25 +134%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $9 +$5 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 16? Jan 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in January? Jan 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $14 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $10 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $10 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $19 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 27h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $14 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $9 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 150d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in January? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 161d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in January? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 161d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 179d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.23 · official $59.23 (match) · 34 history records