Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:20:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FC 0xfc5e…f0c5 sports 1560 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 40d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$220 (-1%) realized −$242 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate71%1097W / 454L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day48.1pace
Fees−$71est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$204now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,090
7 days−$133
14 days+$241
30 days+$195
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$367
crypto 28% −$188
other 11% −$44
weather 3% −$48
world 0% +$6
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 357 -3.8% -13.0% 75% 75% -11.2%
≤30d 982 -1.1% -10.5% 72% 71% -8.0%
≤90d 1551 -1.5% -10.9% 71% 69% -9.1%
all 1551 -1.5% -10.9% 71% 69% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 69% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 44% -17.8%
15% -27.2% 25% -25.8%
20% -34.3% 13% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$204
Realized−$242
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses1097 / 454
Est. fees paid−$71
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1551 / 1560
History coverage40d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day48.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1551 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 71¢ 94¢ $29 $39 +$9 (+32%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 80¢ 99¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+24%)
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky New York Liberty 72¢ 86¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+20%)
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman Marie Bouzkova 85¢ 84¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Yi Zhou Jurij Rodionov 73¢ 72¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Las Vegas Aces 74¢ 72¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-3%)
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Tommy Paul 76¢ 75¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 79¢ 92¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+16%)
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Carole Monnet Xiyu Wang 83¢ 84¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $30 +$5 +17%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $30 +$8 +27%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $30 +$10 +34%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 17 $20 +$6 +27%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $23 +$8 +36%
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 17 $30 +$10 +34%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $30 +$10 +32%
Spread: Maghreb AS de Fès (-1.5) Jun 17 $23 +$5 +23%
Will COD Meknès win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$7 +24%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Jun 17 $30 +$10 +34%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $12 +$3 +24%
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith Jun 17 $29 +$10 +34%
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 17 $30 +$6 +20%
Set Handicap: Hsu (-1.5) vs Searle (+1.5) Jun 17 $14 +$4 +24%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 17 $30 +$10 +33%
Set Handicap: Brooksby (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) Jun 17 $15 +$3 +23%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 17 $24 +$7 +31%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $30 +$7 +24%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 17 $15 +$4 +27%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Pavel Kotov Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Set Handicap: Fearnley (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5) Jun 17 $15 +$5 +38%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $15 +$5 +32%
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Felix Gill Jun 17 $15 +$3 +23%
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Alina Charaeva Jun 17 $29 +$4 +14%
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $7 +$3 +38%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $15 +$2 +17%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Jun 17 $7 +$1 +16%
Grigor Dimitrov vs. Conor Gannon: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $21 +$3 +13%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $14 +$4 +26%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $15 +$2 +17%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 17 $15 +$3 +20%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $15 +$6 +40%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 17 $15 +$6 +40%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Hynek Barton Jun 17 $15 +$3 +21%
Set Handicap: Olivieri (-1.5) vs Ribecai (+1.5) Jun 17 $8 +$3 +38%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Michele Ribecai Jun 17 $15 +$4 +29%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $14 +$4 +26%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $15 +$5 +36%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $15 +$4 +24%
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 17 $26 +$4 +16%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Yi Zhou BUY Jurij Rodionov 73¢ $30 32m
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 72¢ $30 56m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 85¢ $30 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 71¢ $30 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 79¢ $3 2h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 80¢ $30 2h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 78¢ $30 4h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 74¢ $30 5h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman BUY Marie Bouzkova 85¢ $30 6h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Daniel Rincon 74¢ $30 7h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 73¢ $23 7h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 78¢ $20 7h
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith BUY Jurij Rodionov 74¢ $29 8h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Talia Gibson 75¢ $30 8h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea BUY Billy Harris 74¢ $30 9h
Spread: Maghreb AS de Fès (-1.5) BUY Difaâ Hassani El Jadida 81¢ $23 9h
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Juan Sebastian Gomez BUY Guido Justo 83¢ $30 9h
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Carole Monnet BUY Xiyu Wang 83¢ $3 10h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 75¢ $30 10h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 80¢ $30 10h
Will COD Meknès win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 80¢ $30 11h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym BUY Jerome Kym 74¢ $15 11h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 86¢ $15 12h
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Pavel Kotov BUY Pavel Kotov 70¢ $15 12h
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Felix Gill BUY Otto Virtanen 81¢ $15 12h
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Clement Tabur 79¢ $15 12h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 78¢ $15 12h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 75¢ $15 12h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Hubert Hurkacz 79¢ $16 12h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Thomas Faurel 74¢ $28 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $203.52 · official $203.52 (match) · 3500 history records