Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:41:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc5f…73b6 world 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate41%21W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$7
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$1
other 37% −$1
sports 16% −$8
politics 0% +$2
weather 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.1% -10.6% 22% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 27 +18.1% +6.8% 33% 4% -9.6%
≤90d 38 +13.1% +2.3% 34% 3% -9.6%
all 51 +5.3% -4.7% 41% 8% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 8% -9.9%
10% -13.9% 6% -18.5%
15% -22.2% 2% -26.4%
20% -29.8% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses21 / 30
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage527d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 81¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $54 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $45 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $2 $0 -12%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $13 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $48 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $81 +$2 +2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $29 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $83 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $48 $0 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $84 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $67 +$4 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $117 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $104 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $45 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $19 −$1 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $78 +$2 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $47 −$8 -16%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $5 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $4 $0 -11%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $50 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $4 $0 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $46 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $71 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $69 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $3 $0 +3%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $267 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $298 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $8 +$1 +7%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $294 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $343 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $126 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $57 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 15 $1 $0 +8%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 06 $2 $0 +3%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Canada before July? Dec 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $1 $0 +1%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 25 $3 $0 +2%
Will Jaren Jackson Jr. win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Feb 23 $2 $0 +15%
Warriors vs. Mavericks Feb 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Trump issue an executive order on Day 10? Feb 05 $6 +$1 +25%
Will Curtis Samuel score a touchdown? Feb 05 $11 −$1 -13%
Will Trump appeal his hush money conviction? Jan 25 $2 +$1 +32%
Mungo vs. MINH Jan 24 $5 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $40 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $25 4h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $25 6h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $40 24h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $9 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $32 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $45 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 61¢ $45 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $21 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $10 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $31 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $30 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $30 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $19 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $20 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $5 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $35 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $0 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $45 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $44 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.34 · official $40.50 (match) · 249 history records