Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:23:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc61…bc17 sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 189d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$271 (-16%) realized −$211 · open −$60
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%8W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$425
14 days−$425
30 days−$425
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$333
other 26% −$152
politics 0% −$5
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +7.1% -3.1% 53% 53% -34.2%
≤30d 15 +7.1% -3.1% 53% 53% -34.2%
≤90d 15 +7.1% -3.1% 53% 53% -34.2%
all 17 -5.5% -14.5% 47% 47% -34.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 47% -34.6%
10% -22.7% 47% -40.9%
15% -30.1% 41% -46.6%
20% -37.0% 29% -51.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$100 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$211
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)17 / 19
History coverage189d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 50¢ $39 $38 −$2 (-5%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 65¢ 0¢ $58 $0 −$58 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $157 −$156 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $34 +$22 +65%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $174 +$59 +34%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $94 +$81 +86%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $158 −$156 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $168 +$69 +41%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $12 −$2 -13%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $94 +$103 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $25 +$29 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $60 −$59 -99%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $39 +$91 +230%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $28 +$12 +41%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 11 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? Dec 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Fed Derivative: "No Change" or "25bps cut" favored on December 9? Dec 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $40 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $59 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $157 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $34 18h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 97¢ $121 18h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 90¢ $112 19h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $174 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $174 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $94 27h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $158 40h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $237 40h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 40h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? BUY Yes 9¢ $12 43h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 43h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $168 44h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $196 44h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $94 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $60 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $25 2d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $68 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 90¢ $62 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $39 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $28 4d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 3¢ $500 167d
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 189d
Fed Derivative: "No Change" or "25bps cut" favored on December 9? BUY No Change 1¢ $5 189d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.55 · official $37.55 (match) · 31 history records