Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:43:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc64…96fe sports 141 markets active 2h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7,076 (-2%) realized −$7,076 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate78%110W / 31L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,283per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$1,372est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$152
7 days+$587
14 days+$822
30 days−$3,097
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$6,772
other 4% −$502
crypto 0% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -7.2% -16.1% 87% 3% -7.9%
≤30d 54 -11.4% -19.8% 76% 4% -13.5%
≤90d 141 -8.8% -17.5% 78% 10% -10.7%
all 141 -8.8% -17.5% 78% 10% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 10% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 4% -19.3%
15% -32.6% 1% -27.1%
20% -39.2% 1% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$5,018) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$139 vs −$729 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7,076
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses110 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$1,372
Open positions0
Markets (closed)141 / 141
History coverage71d
Avg bet$3,283
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 141 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 26 $100 +$1 +1%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 7.5 Jun 26 $3,002 +$63 +2%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $4,003 +$90 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$3 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$3 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$2 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 25 $201 +$8 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$4 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$4 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$4 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$4 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$4 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$4 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$4 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$4 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$3 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +7%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$6 +108%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $3,002 +$59 +2%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $3,002 +$59 +2%
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Mi New York Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $3,002 +$62 +2%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $3,002 +$59 +2%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $3,001 +$33 +1%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Jun 22 $3,002 +$62 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 21 $3,501 +$39 +1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3,004 +$125 +4%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3,002 +$50 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $3,020 +$106 +4%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $3,003 +$90 +3%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $2,004 +$124 +6%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $201 −$29 -15%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $2,007 −$322 -16%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 02 $5,018 −$355 -7%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $96 +$6 +7%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $5,873 −$2,579 -44%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $4,004 +$121 +3%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $3,002 +$62 +2%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 30 $101 +$10 +10%
Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $502 −$500 -100%
Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $101 −$80 -79%
Will Ōita Trinita win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $501 +$26 +5%
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $60 +$19 +32%
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Mayar Sherif May 28 $500 −$13 -2%
Will CA Platense win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $500 +$15 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 98¢ $3,002 7h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $4,003 10h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 21h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 22h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 22h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 22h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 23h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 23h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 23h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 23h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 23h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 23h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 23h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 23h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 24h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 24h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 24h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 24h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 25h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 25h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $11 27h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 27h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 98¢ $3,002 31h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 98¢ $3,002 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 98¢ $3,002 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $3,002 3d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $3,001 3d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $3,002 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 99¢ $3,501 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 326 history records