Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:58:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc67…73fb crypto 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$274 (-11%) realized −$274 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate69%11W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day44.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$274
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +1.8% -7.9% 69% 44% -20.3%
≤30d 16 +1.8% -7.9% 69% 44% -20.3%
≤90d 16 +1.8% -7.9% 69% 44% -20.3%
all 16 +1.8% -7.9% 69% 44% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.9% 44% -20.3%
10% ← realistic here -16.7% 19% -28.0%
15% -24.7% 19% -34.9%
20% -32.1% 19% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$133 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$274
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses11 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day44.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $298 −$152 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $541 −$240 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $300 +$241 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $178 −$172 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $152 +$26 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $131 +$22 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $194 +$39 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $293 −$92 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$25 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $57 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $87 +$16 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $235 −$8 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $29 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $146 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $91 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $298 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $295 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $142 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $300 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $15 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $31 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $29 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $177 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $50 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $101 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $131 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $94 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $189 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $51 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $24 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $11 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $50 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $35 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $55 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $30 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $60 55m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 55 history records