Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:34:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc68…72d4 world 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$21 (-1%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate35%30W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$12
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$9
other 22% −$8
sports 17% +$2
politics 11% −$3
economics 4% −$1
finance 2% −$1
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -5.0% -14.0% 22% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 27 -1.5% -10.9% 33% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 73 -0.6% -10.1% 32% 1% -9.9%
all 85 -1.6% -11.0% 35% 2% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 2% -10.1%
10% -19.5% 1% -18.7%
15% -27.3% 1% -26.6%
20% -34.4% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses30 / 55
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)85 / 87
History coverage528d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 95¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 61¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+64%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 44¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $36 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $86 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $38 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $13 −$2 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $12 −$4 -34%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $138 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $9 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $16 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $4 $0 -3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $66 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $126 −$6 -5%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $44 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $6 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $12 $0 +2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $40 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $68 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $16 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $30 +$2 +8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 22 $49 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $44 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $2 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 18 $31 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 15 $3 $0 -5%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $51 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $43 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $49 −$1 -2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $7 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $52 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $158 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $39 +$1 +1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $75 −$1 -2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $2 $0 -7%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $58 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 20 $43 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 20 $5 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $27 −$1 -2%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $32 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $72 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $3 $0 +15%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $70 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $48 $0 +0%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 14 $52 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $37 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $31 20h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 20h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $38 45h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $38 47h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $38 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $3 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $0 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $2 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $5 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 19¢ $8 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 29¢ $12 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $8 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 11¢ $4 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 11¢ $5 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $44 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $44 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.19 · official $37.23 (match) · 360 history records