Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:00:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FC
0xfc69…ac58
other · 108 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
+$77 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$77 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$23
Realized+$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses15 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)107 / 108
History coverage126d
Avg bet$277
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 1 History 107 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-0%)
Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies Grizzlies 22¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Suns vs. Bucks Bucks 48¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Lakers Timberwolves 56¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Jazz vs. 76ers Jazz 26¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Hornets vs. Trail Blazers Trail Blazers 42¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $150 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $180 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $175 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $208 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $243 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $795 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $591 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $397 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $798 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $241 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $275 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $728 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $482 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $223 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $256 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $215 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $295 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $347 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $221 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $269 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 12 $259 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $211 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $786 −$1 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $257 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $215 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 08 $237 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $230 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $292 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 06 $284 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $687 −$1 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $685 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $240 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 05 $225 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $251 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 04 $212 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 04 $226 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 04 $244 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 04 $209 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 04 $245 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $455 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 03 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $293 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $625 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $229 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $471 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $427 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 02 $249 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $249 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 50% −$15
politics 29% −$10
sports 11% +$105
tech 5% −$1
economics 2% −$1
crypto 2% $0
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 1h
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $150 10d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $150 16d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $180 17d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $180 18d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $175 26d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $175 30d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 30d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $208 31d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $243 56d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $243 56d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $250 56d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $250 56d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $294 56d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $294 57d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $198 57d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $198 57d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $255 57d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $255 57d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $284 57d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $284 57d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $241 57d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $241 57d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $275 57d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $275 58d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $232 58d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $232 58d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $219 58d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $219 58d
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $223 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 71 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 107 +10.4% -0.1% 14% 10% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.1% 10% -9.3%
10% -9.7% 10% -18.0%
15% -18.4% 9% -25.9%
20% -26.4% 7% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.00 · official $23.00 (match) · 326 history records