Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:44:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
FC 0xfc6b…79da sports 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$26 (+1%) realized −$4 · open +$30
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%11W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$530now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$71
14 days−$55
30 days+$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$310
other 37% +$286
crypto 8% +$47
world 1% +$25
tech 1% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +17.3% +6.1% 50% 50% +6.9%
≤30d 4 +1.0% -8.6% 50% 50% +2.9%
≤90d 18 -17.1% -25.0% 44% 44% -22.4%
all 21 -6.7% -15.5% 52% 52% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 52% -10.4%
10% -23.6% 52% -18.9%
15% -31.0% 52% -26.8%
20% -37.8% 33% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$105 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$530
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses11 / 10
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions3
Markets (closed)21 / 24
History coverage172d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 77¢ $200 $233 +$33 (+17%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 47¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $191 −$25 -13%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $202 +$96 +48%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 08 $128 −$126 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $227 +$158 +69%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $51 +$25 +48%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 14 $46 −$45 -98%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 14 $457 −$452 -99%
Spread: Thunder (-10.5) May 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) May 11 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) May 11 $41 +$36 +90%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) May 10 $51 +$45 +90%
Will Detroit Pistons advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA May 07 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 26-1? May 07 $75 −$75 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 07 $51 +$53 +105%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 06 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 06 $404 +$202 +50%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) Apr 26 $100 +$105 +105%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Jan 30 $200 +$122 +61%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minute Jan 25 $100 +$69 +69%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 01 $300 +$115 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 1h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $202 1h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $166 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $298 1h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $191 7d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 7d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 7d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Knicks 48¢ $128 12d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 59¢ $75 36d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? SELL Yes 81¢ $75 36d
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi BUY Yes 41¢ $46 37d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 37d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 37d
Spread: Thunder (-10.5) BUY Thunder 54¢ $20 40d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 63¢ $255 40d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 41d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $41 41d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Knicks 52¢ $41 41d
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) BUY Pistons 52¢ $51 44d
Will Detroit Pistons advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA BUY Yes 66¢ $101 44d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 44d
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) BUY Knicks 51¢ $20 45d
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 45d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY Yes 32¢ $153 45d
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final? BUY Yes 66¢ $200 52d
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 52d
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 52d
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 52d
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) BUY Thunder 48¢ $100 56d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 26-1? BUY No 75¢ $75 141d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $530.27 · official $530.27 (match) · 46 history records