Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:08:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FC 0xfc6c…cf10 sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$19 (+21%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate68%15W / 7L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% +$11
other 31% +$12
politics 30% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)+25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +38.2% +25.1% 68% 68% +19.6%
≤30d 22 +38.2% +25.1% 68% 68% +19.6%
≤90d 22 +38.2% +25.1% 68% 68% +19.6%
all 22 +38.2% +25.1% 68% 68% +19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.1% 68% +19.6%
10% +13.1% 59% +8.1%
15% +2.2% 50% -2.3%
20% -7.8% 45% -11.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late +46% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.7 per $1 lost it wins $2.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses15 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 25
History coverage7d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 88¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +131%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$4 +91%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +68%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 Jun 13 $1 +$2 +179%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7 +$4 +58%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +33%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -89%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Korea Republic win on 202 Jun 12 $1 +$2 +224%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +43%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $6 +$7 +126%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $6 −$1 -21%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $1 $0 -7%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $3 $0 +14%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $4 −$4 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $1 $0 +17%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $4 −$1 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL 98¢ $5 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 1h
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 3h
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 13h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 42¢ $2 13h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $1 13h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 59¢ $2 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 SELL 98¢ $3 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 75¢ $3 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 BUY 34¢ $1 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $6 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Sweden win on 2026- BUY $0 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY $1 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Korea Republic win on 202 BUY 30¢ $1 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.36 · official $3.36 (match) · 63 history records