Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:20:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc6d…aebf world 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 397d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate48%12W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$5
other 20% −$1
crypto 18% $0
economics 4% $0
politics 4% $0
tech 4% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 +1.6% -8.1% 62% 12% -8.0%
≤90d 8 +1.6% -8.1% 62% 12% -8.0%
all 25 -1.6% -11.0% 48% 4% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 4% -9.0%
10% -19.5% 0% -17.7%
15% -27.3% 0% -25.6%
20% -34.4% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

397d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses12 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage397d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $10 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $12 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $45 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $21 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $35 +$5 +16%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $33 +$2 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $38 −$5 -13%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $41 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 04 $22 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $2,700 on June 3? Jun 02 $22 −$1 -4%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $23 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108K and $110K on May 30? May 31 $23 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? May 30 $43 $0 +0%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? May 30 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 World Series? May 29 $22 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on May 31? May 29 $22 $0 -1%
Will Solana dip to $130 in May? May 28 $23 $0 -0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? May 27 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? May 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 24 $1 −$1 -54%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? May 23 $22 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 23 $22 $0 +2%
Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow as next Fed Chair? May 16 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $41 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 21d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 21d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $12 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $12 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 81¢ $45 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 80¢ $45 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $21 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $21 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 69¢ $33 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 69¢ $8 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 60¢ $16 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 60¢ $20 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $3 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $32 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 89¢ $33 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $33 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $26 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $12 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $41 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $41 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $1 362d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $22 377d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $22 377d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $22 378d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $22 379d
Ethereum above $2,700 on June 3? SELL No 94¢ $22 379d
Ethereum above $2,700 on June 3? BUY No 98¢ $22 380d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? BUY No 98¢ $23 382d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.43 · official $41.49 (match) · 67 history records