Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:53:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FC
0xfc70…6b53
sports · 19 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$28 -33%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$21 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$30
Realized−$21
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)10 / 19
History coverage34d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 9 History 10 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$21
14 days−$21
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Yes 34¢ 100¢ $5 $14 +$9 (+192%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Netherlands 23¢ 22¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-11%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Derrick Lewis 23¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-38%)
Will Lionel Messi attend UFC Freedom 250? Yes 17¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-96%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Natus Vincere 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$3 +95%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $3 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 14 $3 −$6 -195%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 14 $5 +$18 +372%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs magic - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 11? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Dota 2: 1win vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$9 +291%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 39% −$29
sports 36% −$10
other 14% +$12
world 12% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 14m
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 14m
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 23m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 37¢ $6 38m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 3¢ $1 39m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 57m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 58m
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 23¢ $3 59m
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 32¢ $0 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 32¢ $3 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 33¢ $3 1h
Will Lionel Messi attend UFC Freedom 250? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 23¢ $2 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 5¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11? BUY Up 28¢ $2 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11? BUY Up 22¢ $2 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11? BUY Up 20¢ $2 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11? BUY Up 20¢ $0 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11? BUY Up 20¢ $0 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11? BUY Up 20¢ $0 34d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY FURIA 24¢ $3 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11? BUY Up 25¢ $2 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +16.7% +5.6% 30% 30% -36.0%
≤30d 10 +16.7% +5.6% 30% 30% -36.0%
≤90d 10 +16.7% +5.6% 30% 30% -36.0%
all 10 +16.7% +5.6% 30% 30% -36.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.6% 30% -36.0%
10% -4.5% 30% -42.2%
15% -13.7% 30% -47.8%
20% -22.2% 30% -52.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.13 · official $30.13 (match) · 66 history records