Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:21:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FC 0xfc74…50fc crypto 1618 markets active 1d ago coverage 82d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 81d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$42 (-0%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate60%970W / 648L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day40.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$50
30 days−$165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$224
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 253 -3.7% -12.9% 60% 12% -12.5%
≤30d 1254 -3.8% -13.0% 64% 19% -11.0%
≤90d 1618 -4.7% -13.8% 60% 21% -11.5%
all 1618 -4.7% -13.8% 60% 21% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 21% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 6% -19.9%
15% -29.6% 2% -27.7%
20% -36.5% 1% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses970 / 648
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1618 / 1618
History coverage82d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day40.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1618 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $1 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $1 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $1 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $1 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $1 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $1 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $1 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $1 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 32h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $1 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records