Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:36:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc75…99e2 other 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-1%) realized −$12 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate18%6W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$7
other 31% −$21
sports 10% $0
politics 8% $0
finance 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.8% -11.1% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 12 +2.0% -7.7% 33% 8% -7.8%
≤90d 12 +2.0% -7.7% 33% 8% -7.8%
all 33 -5.4% -14.4% 18% 3% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 3% -11.0%
10% -22.6% 0% -19.5%
15% -30.1% 0% -27.3%
20% -36.9% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 85% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses6 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage252d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $47 $46 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $9 $0 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $47 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $52 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $19 $0 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $53 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $47 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $51 +$3 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $13 +$1 +10%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $43 −$1 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $44 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $31 +$5 +15%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-03? Jan 30 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-23? Nov 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $25 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $37 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $59 $0 -0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 21 $23 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 21 $20 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 20 $20 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $24 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Oct 24 $24 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 23 $24 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 09 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $44 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $47 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $42 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $4 24h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $52 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $52 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 92¢ $10 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 92¢ $8 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $19 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $12 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $41 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $53 23d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $24 23d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $24 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $15 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 80¢ $28 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 80¢ $6 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 79¢ $14 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 72¢ $43 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 72¢ $1 24d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 74¢ $42 24d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 75¢ $43 24d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $44 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.38 · official $46.38 (match) · 120 history records