Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:30:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc75…8604 other 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,374 (-1%) realized −$697 · open −$677
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate91%107W / 11L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$697per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$21,009now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$11
14 days+$22
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$405
politics 37% −$454
other 11% −$113
tech 1% −$215
economics 1% +$18
finance 1% +$57
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +4.7% -5.3% 100% 0% -7.9%
≤30d 19 -1.8% -11.2% 89% 5% -9.2%
≤90d 118 -3.1% -12.4% 91% 4% -10.1%
all 118 -3.1% -12.4% 91% 4% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 4% -10.1%
10% -20.7% 3% -18.7%
15% -28.4% 1% -26.5%
20% -35.4% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$121 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$21,009
Realized−$697
Unrealized−$677
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses107 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions16
Markets (closed)118 / 134
History coverage100d
Avg bet$697
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $8,275 $8,435 +$161 (+2%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $6,712 $6,661 −$50 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 100¢ $2,878 $2,990 +$112 (+4%)
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1,255 $1,279 +$23 (+2%)
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? No 77¢ 80¢ $462 $477 +$15 (+3%)
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 88¢ 84¢ $386 $369 −$17 (-4%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $284 $285 +$1 (+0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 35¢ 28¢ $350 $275 −$75 (-21%)
Will United Russia (ER) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 96¢ 98¢ $96 $98 +$2 (+2%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $875 $81 −$794 (-91%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? No 77¢ 74¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-3%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? Yes 39¢ 22¢ $20 $11 −$8 (-42%)
Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 71¢ 81¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+15%)
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $44 $2 −$43 (-96%)
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-45%)
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Jun 27 $66 +$6 +8%
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliam Jun 26 $571 +$5 +1%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? Jun 19 $64 +$6 +10%
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the June Meeting? Jun 19 $2,530 +$5 +0%
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Jun 10 $11,222 $0 +0%
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? Jun 02 $48 +$2 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? Jun 02 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 202 Jun 02 $98 +$2 +3%
James Comey charges dropped by May 31? Jun 02 $195 +$5 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $13 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $50 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $98 +$2 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $392 +$8 +2%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $650 in May? May 31 $67 +$3 +4%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? May 30 $143 +$22 +15%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 29 $19 −$19 -100%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? May 29 $11 +$1 +5%
Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State May 25 $162 +$15 +9%
Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 21 $99 +$63 +64%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? May 20 $65 −$60 -92%
Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $59 +$17 +28%
Will Doug Jones win the 2026 Alabama Governor Democratic primary elect May 20 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? May 18 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Ukraine be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $48 +$2 +4%
Will Belgium be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Will United Kingdom be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $19 $0 +1%
Will Lithuania be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $197 +$3 +1%
Will Australia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Poland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Poland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $115 +$1 +1%
Will Austria be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $178 +$1 +1%
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $192 +$8 +4%
Will Albania be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $194 +$6 +3%
Will Croatia be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $197 +$3 +1%
Will Serbia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $193 +$7 +4%
Will Austria be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $199 +$1 +0%
Will Cyprus be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $197 +$3 +2%
Will Norway be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $222 +$3 +1%
Will Serbia be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $225 +$5 +2%
Will Poland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $275 +$5 +2%
Will Cyprus be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $278 +$3 +1%
Will Malta be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $291 +$9 +3%
Will United Kingdom be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $297 +$3 +1%
Will Lithuania be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $334 +$4 +1%
Will Germany be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $346 +$4 +1%
Will Germany be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $495 +$5 +1%
Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15? May 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026? May 16 $156 +$4 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $13 48m
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $507 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $519 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $72 21h
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? SELL No 100¢ $72 21h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $302 21h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $284 46h
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliam SELL Yes 96¢ $505 2d
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliam SELL Yes 96¢ $1 3d
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliam SELL Yes 96¢ $67 3d
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliam SELL Yes 96¢ $4 4d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1,871 6d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $2 6d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $2 7d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 7d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $5 7d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $720 7d
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the June Meeting? BUY No 100¢ $439 10d
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the June Meeting? BUY No 100¢ $2,091 11d
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $475 14d
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? BUY Yes 91¢ $64 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $75 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $194 14d
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $229 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $2 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $2 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $8 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $4 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,009.28 · official $20,991.20 (match) · 699 history records