Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:32:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc79…05fb sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$5 (-21%) realized −$1 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$2
other 30% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -7.9% -16.7% 36% 36% -17.0%
≤30d 11 -7.9% -16.7% 36% 36% -17.0%
≤90d 11 -7.9% -16.7% 36% 36% -17.0%
all 11 -7.9% -16.7% 36% 36% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 36% -17.0%
10% -24.7% 36% -24.9%
15% -32.0% 36% -32.2%
20% -38.6% 27% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)11 / 18
History coverage3d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Yes 43¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Over 32¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 39¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +115%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 -7%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Korea Republic win on 202 Jun 12 $1 +$2 +194%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 $0 -19%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 +$1 +87%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $1 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 26h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 62¢ $5 44h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 44h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 SELL 98¢ $2 44h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 BUY 45¢ $1 45h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 8¢ $1 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026 BUY 46¢ $1 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $2 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $1 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Korea Republic win on 202 BUY 33¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.70 · official $2.70 (match) · 24 history records