Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:39:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FC
0xfc79…b55a
crypto · 781 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$682 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$928 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$928
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses422 / 358
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)780 / 781
History coverage98d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 1 History 780 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$73
7 days−$60
14 days−$178
30 days−$1,565
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes 12¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-63%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$5 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$7 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$7 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $29 −$29 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$12 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$11 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$20 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$10 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$8 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$7 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$8 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$8 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$8 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$7 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$7 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$936
other 1% +$9
sports 0% $0
culture 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +0.3% -9.2% 64% 60% -15.0%
≤30d 616 -15.2% -23.2% 51% 51% -26.3%
≤90d 776 -3.0% -12.2% 54% 53% -17.7%
all 780 -2.6% -11.8% 54% 53% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 53% -17.6%
10% -20.3% 52% -25.5%
15% -28.0% 50% -32.7%
20% -35.0% 26% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.75 · official $0.75 (match) · 1872 history records