Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:09:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc7b…7a75 weather 75 markets active 4h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$504 (+11%) realized +$528 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%29W / 44L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day37.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$92
7 days+$321
14 days+$348
30 days+$348
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 91% +$392
sports 9% −$58
other 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -8.4% -17.1% 38% 35% -0.6%
≤30d 73 -12.0% -20.3% 40% 36% -2.3%
≤90d 73 -12.0% -20.3% 40% 36% -2.3%
all 73 -12.0% -20.3% 40% 36% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.3% 36% -2.3%
10% ← realistic here -28.0% 25% -11.7%
15% -34.9% 22% -20.2%
20% -41.3% 15% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$28 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$528
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses29 / 44
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)73 / 75
History coverage9d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day37.3
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 18? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $38 $24 −$14 (-37%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 18? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $250 +$49 +20%
Honor of Kings: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs Talent Gaming (BO5) - King Pro Jun 17 $47 −$46 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $107 +$19 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $89 +$39 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $18 −$8 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $205 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $52 −$31 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $100 +$36 +36%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $110 −$54 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $88 −$88 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $62 −$62 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $163 +$88 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $168 −$16 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $22 −$17 -80%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? Jun 15 $42 +$67 +160%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $127 −$123 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $49 +$8 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 15 Jun 15 $1 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $193 +$6 +3%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $157 +$404 +257%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 +$1 +267%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 −$4 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 Jun 14 $14 +$3 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 +$15 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $22 +$60 +272%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $104 −$29 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $48 +$113 +236%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $42 +$58 +138%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$5 -51%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $25 +$5 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $23 +$11 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $177 +$355 +201%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $39 −$38 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $59 −$9 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 12 $132 −$97 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $107 −$92 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $71 −$49 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $45 −$40 -89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $300 3h
Honor of Kings: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs Talent Gaming (BO5) - King Pro BUY Dragon Ranger Gaming 46¢ $47 6h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 83¢ $250 6h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $40 7h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 18 BUY Yes 3¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 18 BUY Yes 3¢ $19 7h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 44¢ $32 7h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 63¢ $18 7h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 75¢ $7 7h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 81¢ $13 7h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 80¢ $55 7h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 52¢ $107 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 35¢ $128 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 36¢ $74 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 42¢ $15 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 43¢ $21 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 47¢ $23 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 51¢ $25 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 51¢ $25 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 51¢ $25 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 51¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? SELL Yes 22¢ $21 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.85 · official $34.85 (match) · 362 history records