Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:45:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

FC 0xfc7e…2780 crypto 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$12 (+27%) realized +$9 · open +$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR32%break-even

Win rate47%9W / 10L

Drawdown76%max

Avg bet$2per market

Trades / day33.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +32%

net ROI/market (all)+7.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	+18.5%	+7.2%	47%	32%	-2.1%
≤30d	19	+18.5%	+7.2%	47%	32%	-2.1%
≤90d	19	+18.5%	+7.2%	47%	32%	-2.1%
all	19	+18.5%	+7.2%	47%	32%	-2.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover33.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+7.2%	32%	-2.1%
10% ← realistic here	-3.0%	32%	-11.5%
15%	-12.4%	26%	-20.1%
20%	-21.0%	26%	-27.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 43% · top 2 62% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +18% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +70% → late -28% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.18 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$6

Realized+$9

Unrealized+$3

Win rate (resolved)47%

Wins / losses9 / 10

Open positions1

Markets (closed)19 / 20

History coverage1d

Avg bet$2

Trades / day33.0

Drawdown76%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	23¢	42¢	$3	$6	+$3 (+84%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Jun 16	$4	−$1	-24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Jun 16	$1	$0	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Jun 16	$2	−$2	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Jun 16	$3	−$3	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Jun 16	$1	$0	+7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Jun 16	$3	+$2	+65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Jun 16	$2	+$4	+174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Jun 16	$3	−$3	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$1	+27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Jun 16	$3	−$1	-44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Jun 16	$4	−$4	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Jun 16	$2	+$9	+446%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Jun 15	$1	+$4	+392%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Jun 15	$1	+$1	+105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Jun 15	$1	$0	+4%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	BUY Down	23¢	$3	2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	BUY Up	98¢	$3	6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	BUY Down	34¢	$1	8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	BUY Down	99¢	$1	52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	BUY Down	21¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	BUY Down	42¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	BUY Up	91¢	$3	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	BUY Down	46¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	BUY Up	93¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	BUY Down	5¢	$1	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	BUY Down	59¢	$3	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$1	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Up	34¢	$1	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	BUY Up	16¢	$1	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	BUY Up	9¢	$1	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	BUY Up	13¢	$1	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	BUY Down	8¢	$1	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	BUY Up	84¢	$3	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	BUY Up	34¢	$1	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	BUY Down	8¢	$1	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	BUY Down	24¢	$1	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$1	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	BUY Down	25¢	$1	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	BUY Down	29¢	$3	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	BUY Up	13¢	$1	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	BUY Up	26¢	$1	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	BUY Up	13¢	$1	16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$5	17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	BUY Up	19¢	$1	17h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.52 · official $2.59 · 43 history records