Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:48:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FC 0xfc82…d3bd crypto 896 markets active 0h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$137 (-0%) realized −$1,542 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate90%809W / 87L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day28.1pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,535
other 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -1.2% -10.6% 88% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 370 -0.3% -9.8% 92% 1% -9.9%
≤90d 884 -0.7% -10.1% 91% 8% -11.2%
all 896 -1.0% -10.5% 90% 8% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 8% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 5% -22.2%
15% -26.9% 3% -29.7%
20% -34.0% 1% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$39 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$1,542
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses809 / 87
Open positions0
Markets (closed)896 / 896
History coverage92d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day28.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 896 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Up 96¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $6 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.80 · official $5.80 (match) · 3500 history records