Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:08:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc85…648e other 112 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,231 (+1%) realized +$1,231 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate13%14W / 97L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$1,459per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$224now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$9
14 days+$4
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$69
politics 31% −$71
sports 6% +$1,334
economics 5% −$8
world 2% −$3
tech 1% $0
culture 1% −$2
crypto 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 52 +0.6% -9.0% 13% 8% -9.6%
≤90d 108 +0.3% -9.2% 13% 9% -8.8%
all 111 +0.3% -9.2% 13% 9% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 9% -8.8%
10% -17.9% 9% -17.6%
15% -25.8% 8% -25.5%
20% -33.1% 7% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,714) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$124 vs −$6 · ×22.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.21 per $1 lost it wins $3.21
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$224
Realized+$1,231
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses14 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)111 / 112
History coverage94d
Avg bet$1,459
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $224 $224 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 20 $276 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $1,714 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $663 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 17 $1,013 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $1,412 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $1,692 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 15 $1,244 +$1 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $250 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $233 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $3,192 −$3 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $156 +$2 +1%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $5,056 −$7 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $3,371 −$5 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $104 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,159 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,963 −$5 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $1,708 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $240 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1,271 −$2 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $233 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $251 $0 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 07 $50 +$38 +76%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,615 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $154 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $215 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $216 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $212 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $216 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $4,335 −$7 -0%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 05 $32 −$32 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $101 $0 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 05 $70 +$56 +79%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? Jun 03 $101 $0 +0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $152 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $112 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $124 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $124 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $2,675 −$3 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $2,764 −$3 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,005 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $4,374 −$6 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $6,026 −$7 -0%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,006 −$2 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 24 $823 −$1 -0%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $52 +$67 +129%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $2,853 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $224 1h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $275 22h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $520 23h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $276 26h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $521 27h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $414 2d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $415 2d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $662 2d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $663 3d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,192 3d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,193 3d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $906 3d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $908 4d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,316 5d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,318 5d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $214 5d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $1,245 5d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $215 5d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $250 6d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $250 6d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $232 6d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $233 6d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $203 7d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $204 7d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $105 8d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $105 8d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $104 9d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $104 10d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $104 10d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $104 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $223.59 · official $223.59 (match) · 385 history records