Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:17:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
FC 0xfc8a…1fb3 sports 1025 markets active 1h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$915 (+2%) realized +$730 · open +$185
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%497W / 527L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$372now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days−$239
14 days−$239
30 days−$239
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$495
other 15% +$455
world 0% +$139
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +29.6% +17.3% 38% 38% -25.4%
≤30d 29 +29.6% +17.3% 38% 38% -25.4%
≤90d 123 +6.0% -4.1% 48% 47% -13.0%
all 1024 +5.0% -5.0% 49% 47% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 47% -5.9%
10% -14.1% 45% -14.9%
15% -22.4% 42% -23.1%
20% -30.0% 37% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$22 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$372
Realized+$730
Unrealized+$185
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses497 / 527
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1024 / 1025
History coverage162d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1024 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Over 38¢ 76¢ $187 $372 +$185 (+99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 361 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $151 −$5 -4%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $25 +$34 +134%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $71 +$66 +93%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $99 −$98 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $89 −$87 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $69 −$68 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $28 −$27 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$24 +238%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 +$86 +170%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $10 +$89 +864%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $10 +$49 +473%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $18 +$42 +226%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $41 +$48 +118%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $99 +$49 +50%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $95 −$93 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $51 −$5 -9%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $120 −$119 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $49 +$22 +46%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $77 −$69 -90%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $13 −$13 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Portland Timbers vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 3.5 Mar 22 $29 −$29 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 4.5 Mar 22 $10 +$29 +290%
Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 Mar 22 $8 +$12 +150%
Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 Mar 22 $40 +$30 +76%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Santos FC: O/U 1.5 Mar 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Athletic Club vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 2.5 Mar 22 $10 +$15 +150%
Athletic Club vs. Real Betis Balompié: Both Teams to Score Mar 22 $10 +$12 +122%
AS Roma vs. US Lecce: O/U 1.5 Mar 22 $12 +$5 +43%
Paris FC vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 4.5 Mar 22 $9 +$35 +392%
Paris FC vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 3.5 Mar 22 $10 +$8 +77%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $20 +$24 +121%
Will FC Metz win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 2.5 Mar 22 $10 +$7 +70%
SC Preußen Münster vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 2.5 Mar 22 $10 +$7 +67%
VfL Bochum vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 2.5 Mar 22 $10 +$7 +67%
TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Hertha BSC: Both Teams to Score Mar 22 $10 +$6 +64%
VfL Bochum vs. Holstein Kiel: Both Teams to Score Mar 22 $10 +$6 +64%
SC Preußen Münster vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: Both Teams to Score Mar 22 $10 +$6 +59%
FC Barcelona vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5 Mar 22 $29 −$29 -100%
Sporting Kansas City vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 3.5 Mar 22 $20 +$19 +94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $145 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 64¢ $145 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $151 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $46 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $59 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $137 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $99 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $46 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $25 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $25 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $89 6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 10h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $18 10h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 37¢ $20 10h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 22¢ $28 10h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $33 25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 90¢ $35 25h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $20 25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 25h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 18¢ $6 28h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $137 28h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $51 29h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $30 30h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $20 30h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 99¢ $99 31h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 100¢ $59 31h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $60 31h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $89 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $372.35 · official $372.35 (match) · 2025 history records