Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:44:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc8a…8f0b weather 713 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,198 (+5%) realized +$2,032 · open +$166
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate43%302W / 406L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$567now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$323
7 days+$323
14 days+$323
30 days+$256
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 36% +$2,642
other 17% −$37
finance 16% −$263
sports 16% $0
world 11% −$168
politics 2% −$261
tech 1% −$12
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +30.1% +17.7% 100% 100% +12.3%
≤30d 4 -27.1% -34.0% 50% 50% +6.8%
≤90d 451 -26.7% -33.7% 29% 23% -2.8%
all 708 -10.0% -18.5% 43% 23% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 23% -5.6%
10% -26.3% 19% -14.6%
15% -33.4% 16% -22.8%
20% -40.0% 13% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +19% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$13 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$567
Realized+$2,032
Unrealized+$166
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses302 / 406
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions4
Markets (closed)708 / 713
History coverage144d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 708 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 89¢ 100¢ $268 $300 +$32 (+12%)
Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 11¢ 30¢ $93 $256 +$163 (+174%)
Cap FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $13 $6 −$7 (-51%)
Cap FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $26 $4 −$22 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch? Jun 26 $269 +$108 +40%
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? Jun 26 $1,072 +$215 +20%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $33 −$23 -68%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $45 −$44 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on May 25? May 25 $10 +$21 +215%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on May 25? May 25 $36 +$4 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on May 25? May 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C on May 25? May 24 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on May 25? May 24 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on May 24? May 24 $90 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on May 23? May 23 $51 +$4 +9%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 17 $2 +$1 +73%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 11 $3 −$2 -61%
Aligned FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 11 $10 −$7 -74%
Will GRVT launch a token by September 30, 2026? May 11 $20 −$3 -15%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? May 11 $60 −$27 -45%
Will ForecastEx self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? May 09 $212 −$153 -72%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 28 $913 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on April 27? Apr 27 $7 +$16 +240%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on April 27? Apr 27 $21 −$21 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on April 27? Apr 26 $17 −$16 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C on April 24? Apr 24 $3 +$7 +233%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or higher on April 24? Apr 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on April 24? Apr 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 20°C on April 24? Apr 23 $11 −$11 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 19°C on April 24? Apr 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on April 24? Apr 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on April 23? Apr 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on April 22? Apr 22 $7 +$88 +1262%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on April 23? Apr 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C or below on April 23? Apr 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on April 20? Apr 22 $79 +$173 +219%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on April 22? Apr 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on April 22? Apr 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on April 21? Apr 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on April 21? Apr 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on April 21? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on April 19? Apr 20 $285 +$15 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on April 19? Apr 20 $383 +$116 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on April 19? Apr 20 $373 +$61 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on April 20? Apr 20 $63 −$63 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on April 20? Apr 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on April 19? Apr 19 $102 −$72 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 19? Apr 19 $140 −$136 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on April 19? Apr 19 $30 −$13 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on April 19? Apr 19 $16 −$15 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on April 18? Apr 19 $54 +$166 +305%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on April 20? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or higher on April 18? Apr 18 $12 −$12 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch? SELL Yes 41¢ $189 1h
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? SELL Yes 90¢ $335 1h
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? SELL Yes 90¢ $112 1h
Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch? SELL Yes 41¢ $189 2h
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? SELL Yes 93¢ $232 2h
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? SELL Yes 92¢ $222 2h
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? SELL Yes 92¢ $8 2h
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? SELL Yes 90¢ $377 2h
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $91 2d
Cap FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 6¢ $16 2d
Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 16¢ $25 2d
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 76¢ $618 2d
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 77¢ $173 2d
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $142 2d
Cap FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 4¢ $12 2d
Cap FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY Yes 5¢ $14 2d
Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 14¢ $43 2d
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 74¢ $75 2d
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $177 2d
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 69¢ $166 2d
Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch? BUY Yes 36¢ $43 2d
Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 2d
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 62¢ $40 2d
Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch? BUY Yes 23¢ $104 2d
Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 2d
Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch? BUY Yes 28¢ $122 2d
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $641 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY 24¢ $5 14d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 14d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 60¢ $33 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $567.40 · official $567.40 (match) · 3119 history records