Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:39:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FC 0xfc8c…e548 crypto 246 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,045 (+12%) realized +$1,079 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%102W / 140L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$420now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$187
7 days+$378
14 days+$265
30 days+$561
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% +$307
world 23% +$1,101
crypto 13% −$148
other 11% −$246
politics 7% −$318
culture 4% −$35
tech 1% +$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +33.1% +20.4% 43% 41% +4.3%
≤30d 64 +9.3% -1.1% 44% 41% +1.0%
≤90d 242 -7.7% -16.5% 42% 40% -0.7%
all 242 -7.7% -16.5% 42% 40% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 40% -0.7%
10% -24.5% 39% -10.2%
15% -31.8% 36% -18.9%
20% -38.4% 33% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$21 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$420
Realized+$1,079
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses102 / 140
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions4
Markets (closed)242 / 246
History coverage80d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 242 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BetBoom Team 71¢ 70¢ $226 $223 −$2 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 46¢ 46¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $99 $97 −$2 (-2%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 24¢ 1¢ $30 $1 −$29 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $103 −$31 -31%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $713 +$219 +31%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$18 +344%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$16 +307%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$41 +802%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $61 +$68 +112%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $58 −$57 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $52 +$67 +128%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $209 +$9 +4%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $61 +$29 +48%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$61 +596%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $166 −$164 -99%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $94 −$93 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $101 −$69 -68%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 13 $101 +$63 +62%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $41 +$80 +197%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 12 $102 +$155 +152%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $121 +$28 +23%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$168 +165%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $110 +$40 +36%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $92 −$40 -44%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 11 $133 +$40 +30%
Will the 2026 NBA Finals be tied 2-2 through 4 games? Jun 09 $52 −$51 -98%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $364 −$19 -5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $91 +$38 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $21 −$20 -98%
Map Handicap: MNTE (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5) Jun 08 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $100 +$43 +44%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $101 +$38 +38%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $111 +$55 +50%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $101 +$10 +10%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $41 −$40 -98%
Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5) Jun 06 $71 −$70 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $101 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $71 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 22¢ $30 3h
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 73¢ $98 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $102 4h
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 70¢ $130 41h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $30 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $129 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $58 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $61 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 91¢ $119 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 39¢ $52 2d
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $52 2d
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $60 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $419.93 · official $419.93 (match) · 573 history records