Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:08:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc8e…31df sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized +$9 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day30.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$140
sports 48% −$148
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -14.6% -22.7% 54% 54% -9.0%
≤30d 13 -14.6% -22.7% 54% 54% -9.0%
≤90d 13 -14.6% -22.7% 54% 54% -9.0%
all 13 -14.6% -22.7% 54% 54% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.7% 54% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -30.1% 46% -17.7%
15% -36.9% 31% -25.6%
20% -43.1% 15% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$29 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)13 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day30.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 8¢ 8¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 29¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $25 −$1 -3%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $102 +$26 +25%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$8 +16%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $22 −$22 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 21 $20 +$15 +74%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$45 +44%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 +$6 +29%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $53 −$50 -96%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $152 +$71 +47%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $71 −$70 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $25 33m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $25 37m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 58¢ $127 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 8¢ $15 2h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 29¢ $10 2h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 28¢ $9 2h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 29¢ $10 2h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $60 3h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 4h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 26¢ $7 4h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Tampa Bay Rays 82¢ $35 4h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 29¢ $5 5h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 39¢ $10 5h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 46¢ $20 5h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 98¢ $146 19h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 8¢ $26 23h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $27 23h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 58¢ $51 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 25h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 25h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 26¢ $5 25h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 26¢ $1 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 94¢ $222 26h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 44¢ $1 27h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 43¢ $1 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $152 27h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 7¢ $3 28h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 7¢ $10 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.45 · official $33.45 (match) · 38 history records