Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:20:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
FC 0xfc8f…fc38 sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$6 (+2%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +20.6% +9.1% 78% 33% -8.2%
≤30d 9 +20.6% +9.1% 78% 33% -8.2%
≤90d 9 +20.6% +9.1% 78% 33% -8.2%
all 9 +20.6% +9.1% 78% 33% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.1% 33% -8.2%
10% -1.3% 22% -17.0%
15% -10.8% 11% -25.0%
20% -19.6% 11% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $12 +$2 +20%
Spread: Panama (-1.5) Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $126 +$1 +1%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $32 −$5 -15%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $1 $0 +34%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $90 +$3 +3%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +236%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $126 1h
Spread: Panama (-1.5) BUY Ghana 100¢ $7 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $11 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Over 32¢ $1 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 32¢ $1 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 27¢ $27 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 30¢ $31 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 2h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 5h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $90 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records