Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:36:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FC 0xfc8f…6fe7 sports 252 markets active 0h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$709 (+11%) realized +$701 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate76%190W / 60L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$26
14 days+$33
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$702
other 1% +$10
finance 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +11.0% +0.5% 75% 50% -0.3%
≤30d 98 -2.6% -11.9% 77% 45% -7.8%
≤90d 196 -5.2% -14.2% 76% 46% -7.7%
all 250 -5.6% -14.6% 76% 47% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 47% +0.3%
10% -22.7% 21% -9.3%
15% -30.2% 12% -18.1%
20% -37.0% 7% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$10 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.14 per $1 lost it wins $2.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized+$701
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses190 / 60
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)250 / 252
History coverage175d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 250 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Team Liquid 85¢ 92¢ $51 $56 +$5 (+9%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner T1 92¢ 100¢ $37 $40 +$3 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 29 $44 +$6 +14%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $9 +$1 +12%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Jun 28 $119 +$11 +10%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 28 $10 $0 +5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $6 +$4 +70%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $21 +$9 +45%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $18 +$2 +11%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 $0 +5%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $2 +$5 +260%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $9 +$1 +6%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $17 +$13 +73%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $90 +$2 +2%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $84 +$15 +18%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $73 +$7 +10%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $23 +$2 +10%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $49 +$1 +2%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $18 +$2 +11%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $72 +$23 +31%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $26 +$4 +17%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $43 +$4 +9%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo Jun 13 $10 +$10 +109%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $28 +$2 +7%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $27 +$3 +9%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $79 +$1 +1%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $21 −$1 -3%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $60 −$11 -17%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $75 −$75 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $7 +$1 +9%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $18 +$2 +13%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $18 +$2 +11%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $121 +$9 +7%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $62 +$8 +14%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs PCIFIC (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $9 +$1 +12%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $9 +$1 +14%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $56 +$4 +8%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $18 −$18 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $54 +$6 +11%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 +$5 +93%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $18 +$2 +12%
LoL: Galions vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 10 $18 +$2 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL T1 100¢ $50 26m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 30m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 89¢ $9 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 92¢ $37 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 87¢ $44 12h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Team Liquid 85¢ $51 12h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Team Liquid 81¢ $0 20h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 94¢ $85 24h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 35¢ $4 24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 82¢ $16 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 90¢ $18 2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 5d
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 95¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 70¢ $7 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 10d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 85¢ $24 11d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 85¢ $10 11d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Galions 57¢ $17 13d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 58¢ $6 13d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL LYON 92¢ $92 14d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 90¢ $90 14d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL LYON 100¢ $100 14d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 90¢ $45 14d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 85¢ $34 14d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 54¢ $5 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.66 · official $95.67 (match) · 723 history records