Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:28:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc90…db14 crypto 1243 markets active 0h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,640 (-4%) realized −$2,640 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%619W / 624L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day15.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$239
7 days+$229
14 days+$93
30 days−$1,187
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4,081
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +0.2% -9.3% 55% 50% +4.3%
≤30d 173 -20.5% -28.0% 43% 39% -23.4%
≤90d 373 -16.3% -24.3% 49% 44% -19.3%
all 1243 -13.4% -21.7% 50% 42% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 42% -15.2%
10% -29.2% 32% -23.3%
15% -36.0% 23% -30.7%
20% -42.3% 17% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$29 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,640
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses619 / 624
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1243 / 1243
History coverage174d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1243 Trades
no open positions (459 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 29 $100 +$33 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 29 $105 −$94 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 29 $105 −$17 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 29 $105 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 29 $105 +$70 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 29 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 29 $105 +$26 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 29 $105 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 29 $106 +$12 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 29 $157 +$168 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 29 $53 +$17 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 29 $148 +$68 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 29 $99 +$60 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$11 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $9 +$13 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 18 $32 −$20 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$10 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$7 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$18 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$31 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $42 −$11 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$9 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $84 −$19 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$40 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$25 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $63 −$21 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $63 −$30 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$39 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$59 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$18 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$23 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $133 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $100 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $11 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $88 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $105 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $113 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $105 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $175 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $131 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $118 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $146 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $43 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $164 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $159 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $99 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2944 history records