Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:53:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FC 0xfc93…67d4 other 146 markets active 2h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$225 (+10%) realized +$225 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%61W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$125
7 days+$160
14 days+$224
30 days+$160
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$63
sports 41% +$381
culture 2% −$55
politics 0% −$10
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +15.5% +4.5% 55% 55% +24.4%
≤30d 36 +21.8% +10.2% 56% 56% +9.0%
≤90d 68 +4.2% -5.7% 47% 47% +2.3%
all 146 -6.3% -15.2% 42% 42% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 42% +0.4%
10% -23.3% 42% -9.2%
15% -30.7% 38% -18.0%
20% -37.5% 36% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$11 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$225
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses61 / 85
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)146 / 146
History coverage238d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 146 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$47 +46%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$39 +38%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$45 +45%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $3 +$4 +146%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 +$10 +188%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$5 +105%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$11 +216%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +240%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +83%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 +$13 +66%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$18 +172%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +165%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $51 +$52 +103%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $10 +$20 +197%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $10 +$17 +165%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $33 +$29 +86%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: Fnatic vs BBL Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifi May 22 $51 +$25 +49%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 May 22 $51 −$50 -99%
Valorant: Team Envy vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qu May 20 $203 +$52 +26%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? May 17 $10 +$11 +109%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $5 +$7 +146%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $5 +$20 +388%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 29 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Apr 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 96¢ $148 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 95¢ $139 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 13h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $20 16h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 16h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $5 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $147 31h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 41h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $5 41h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 41h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $5 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 3d
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $3 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $5 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $5 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 4d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $5 4d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $5 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $34 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $5 6d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $20 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $5 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 8d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 287 history records