Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:48:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FC 0xfc95…4c8f sports 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$61 (+1%) realized +$221 · open −$160
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate15%3W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$102est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +1.6% -8.1% 15% 15% -6.1%
≤30d 20 +1.6% -8.1% 15% 15% -6.1%
≤90d 20 +1.6% -8.1% 15% 15% -6.1%
all 20 +1.6% -8.1% 15% 15% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 15% -6.1%
10% -16.9% 15% -15.1%
15% -24.9% 15% -23.3%
20% -32.3% 15% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late +103% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$592 vs −$100 · ×5.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$2,150
Realized+$221
Unrealized−$160
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses3 / 17
Est. fees paid−$102
Open positions23
Markets (closed)20 / 43
History coverage5d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $110 $107 −$3 (-3%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $103 +$1,008 +982%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 +$282 +276%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 +$486 +474%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 1h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 1h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 1h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 1h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $113 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 4d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 4d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 4d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 4d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 4d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 4d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 4d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 4d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 4d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,150.32 · official $2,150.32 (match) · 46 history records