Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:55:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc98…7667 other 347 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$821 (-12%) realized −$820 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate59%190W / 133L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$759
sports 19% −$102
world 2% +$17
crypto 1% +$34
politics 0% −$5
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -17.3% -25.2% 42% 40% -24.8%
≤30d 46 -19.1% -26.8% 41% 39% -43.8%
≤90d 95 -8.1% -16.9% 52% 51% -16.8%
all 323 -5.2% -14.2% 59% 55% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 55% -20.6%
10% -22.4% 48% -28.2%
15% -29.9% 42% -35.2%
20% -36.8% 29% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$20 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$820
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses190 / 133
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions22
Markets (closed)323 / 347
History coverage136d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 323 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Under 46¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 51¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 63¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 41¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Yes 54¢ 55¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 46¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score No 59¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Under 53¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 53¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 34¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Yes 61¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 93¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 55¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Gavi Paez: 1+ goals Yes 27¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Omar Marmoush: 3+ shots Yes 46¢ 25¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-46%)
Jeremy Doku: 3+ shots Yes 49¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 117 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $1 $0 -13%
Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals Jun 15 $1 $0 -8%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $1 +$1 +134%
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Jun 15 $1 +$2 +158%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 +$1 +73%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +114%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$2 +86%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 +$1 +70%
Nicolas Pépé: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Donyell Malen: 3+ shots Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Daizen Maeda: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Ayase Ueda: 3+ shots Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +109%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 +$2 +172%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $1 +$1 +70%
Arda Güler: 1+ assists Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Endrick: 1+ goals Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +48%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +109%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 +$1 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +44%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $2 +$1 +70%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $1 +$1 +124%
Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score May 03 $3 +$1 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 23¢ $1 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $1 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $1 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 BUY Under 46¢ $2 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $2 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 1h
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $1 1h
Gavi Paez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 61¢ $1 1h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals SELL Yes 39¢ $1 1h
Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals SELL Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Jeremy Doku: 3+ shots BUY Yes 49¢ $1 1h
Omar Marmoush: 3+ shots BUY Yes 46¢ $1 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $1 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $1 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $1 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 1h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $1 17h
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $1 17h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $1 17h
Nicolas Pépé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $1 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.01 · official $27.02 (match) · 600 history records