Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:55:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfc99…bc5e crypto 747 markets active 1h ago coverage 602d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,734 (-8%) realized −$1,729 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate53%394W / 343L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$118
7 days−$286
14 days−$1,058
30 days−$1,121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$2,013
politics 1% −$102
other 0% +$6
world 0% −$68
culture 0% −$1
finance 0% −$2
sports 0% −$8
weather 0% −$5
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +0.9% -8.7% 76% 71% -21.1%
≤30d 85 -18.0% -25.8% 60% 48% -19.5%
≤90d 85 -18.0% -25.8% 60% 48% -19.5%
all 737 -7.9% -16.7% 53% 45% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 45% -18.7%
10% -24.7% 34% -26.5%
15% -31.9% 26% -33.6%
20% -38.6% 19% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$16 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

602d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$1,729
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses394 / 343
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)737 / 747
History coverage602d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 737 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 73¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? Yes 32¢ 31¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Yes 30¢ 23¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-42%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 47¢ 52¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-40%)
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? No 10¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-43%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
NATO dissolves before 2027? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 22 $104 +$28 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 22 $103 +$37 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 22 $52 +$21 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 22 $103 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $207 −$207 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $205 −$130 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $207 +$25 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $207 −$202 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $208 +$20 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $207 +$74 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $207 +$40 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $207 +$78 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $103 −$96 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $44 +$10 +22%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $104 −$68 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $103 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 9? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 09 $103 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 09 $316 −$316 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $207 −$115 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 09 $207 +$15 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $101 +$18 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 09 $207 −$207 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 08 $202 +$23 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 08 $408 +$95 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 08 $202 +$23 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 08 $210 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 08 $309 −$96 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 08 $205 +$38 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 08 $205 +$94 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 08 $207 −$207 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 08 $207 +$78 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 08 $207 +$27 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 08 $103 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 08 $212 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 08 $207 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 08 $205 +$76 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $7 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 49m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 73¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $132 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $140 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $116 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $207 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $27 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $48 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $232 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $207 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $207 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $228 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $208 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $280 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.70 · official $28.70 (match) · 2026 history records