Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:16:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FC
0xfc9f…614c
other · 97 markets active 2h ago
3.0score
−$67 -23%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$66 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$28
Realized−$66
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses39 / 50
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)89 / 97
History coverage256d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%
Chart Positions 8 History 89 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$15
14 days+$15
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-41%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 62¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Yes 65¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 9? No 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum ETF Flows on October 17? Positive 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Zootopia 2 win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
US government shutdown by October 1? No 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Sam Altman be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's video get between 62 and 64 million views on day 3? Yes 71¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 12PM ET Up 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? No 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Ricky Martin perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? No 17¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 15? No 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Sam Altman say "Nvidia" or "Bubble" on The Tonight Show on December 8? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 22? No 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Bad Bunny) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? No 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +15%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$7 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid May 18 $1 +$2 +185%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Will MrBeast's video get between 62 and 64 million views on day 3? May 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 04 $1 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 04 $1 +$1 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 04 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 04 $1 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 04 $1 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 04 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 25 $1 +$1 +66%
Will F1 win Best Sound at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 25 $2 +$1 +27%
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 25 $3 +$1 +27%
Will Zootopia 2 win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? Mar 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Rauw Alejandro perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $2 $0 +6%
Will Coinbase run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Feb 09 $4 +$1 +30%
Will Santana perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $4 $0 +11%
Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $6 +$3 +47%
Will Ricky Martin perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Neverita be played at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Bad Bunny) win Album of the Year at the 68t Feb 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 12PM ET Jan 30 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Jan 30 $2 $0 +20%
Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in December? Dec 17 $1 $0 +30%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15? Dec 17 $8 +$2 +20%
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 11 $10 +$7 +71%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $1 +$1 +92%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Sam Altman be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist? Dec 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential elect Dec 09 $7 −$2 -27%
Will Sam Altman say "Nvidia" or "Bubble" on The Tonight Show on Decemb Dec 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sam Altman say "ChatGPT" 10+ times on The Tonight Show on Decembe Dec 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 31? Dec 08 $1 $0 -37%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 07 $5 +$3 +59%
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 07 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 63% −$26
crypto 15% −$31
tech 7% +$3
politics 5% −$5
sports 3% $0
culture 3% $0
world 2% −$5
weather 1% −$3
economics 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $6 1h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $1 4h
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 15h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 16h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 16h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 37h
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 2d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 4d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 5d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 32d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 32d
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid BUY Yes 34¢ $1 32d
Will MrBeast's video get between 62 and 64 million views on day 3? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 40d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 40d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $2 40d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 40d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-39.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +13.6% +2.8% 57% 57% +39.9%
≤30d 8 +35.0% +22.2% 62% 62% +44.2%
≤90d 25 +2.2% -7.5% 56% 52% +1.7%
all 89 -33.5% -39.8% 44% 31% -32.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.8% 31% -32.1%
10% -45.6% 22% -38.6%
15% -50.8% 16% -44.6%
20% -55.7% 12% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.40 · official $28.40 (match) · 159 history records