Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:33:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfca1…8d5c other 248 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%19W / 228L
Whale WR5%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$18
14 days−$29
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$42
sports 24% −$23
politics 8% −$9
culture 7% −$8
economics 6% −$5
world 5% −$1
crypto 4% −$3
tech 1% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 62 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 174 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 247 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 5% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses19 / 228
Whale WR (big bets)5%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)247 / 248
History coverage137d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $532 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $214 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $927 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $232 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $424 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $821 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $386 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $588 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $626 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $127 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $386 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $353 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $320 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $276 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 14 $553 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $197 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $295 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $345 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $163 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $372 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $611 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $955 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $319 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 11 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $281 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $204 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $319 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $381 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $675 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $438 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $152 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $370 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $277 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $702 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $207 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $308 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $623 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $66 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 05 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $228 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $465 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $85 −$2 -2%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $178 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $67 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 42m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 3h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 4h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $58 5h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $58 17h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $58 18h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 20h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 21h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 32h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 34h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $58 35h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $58 37h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $39 41h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 42h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 44h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $10 44h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $10 45h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $58 47h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $59 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $59 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $59 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.45 · official $57.45 (match) · 1394 history records