Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:36:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FC 0xfca2…c244 other 141 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,933 (+1%) realized +$1,933 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate19%27W / 113L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$1,099per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$460now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$8
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$1,260
politics 36% −$62
sports 17% +$720
culture 3% −$8
crypto 2% $0
world 1% −$1
finance 0% +$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 78 +2.4% -7.4% 6% 1% -8.5%
all 140 -0.1% -9.6% 19% 11% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 11% -8.4%
10% -18.3% 11% -17.2%
15% -26.2% 11% -25.2%
20% -33.4% 7% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,626) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$10 · ×11.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.75 per $1 lost it wins $2.75
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$460
Realized+$1,933
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses27 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)140 / 141
History coverage136d
Avg bet$1,099
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $460 $460 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 27 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 27 $267 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $262 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $225 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $1,150 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 19 $2,344 −$4 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $896 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $274 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $1,668 −$3 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $1,668 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $3,998 −$6 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,651 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,639 −$2 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $1,613 −$4 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $1,076 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 03 $932 +$3 +0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $4,242 −$4 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1,892 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $1,617 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $2,359 −$4 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $2,229 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $1,626 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 24 $1,341 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $1,345 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $1,968 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? May 19 $1,132 −$3 -0%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 19 $784 +$1,522 +194%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 09 $1,176 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $2,697 −$3 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,143 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $2,954 −$5 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,186 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $1,187 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $1,841 −$3 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $1,152 −$2 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $1,059 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 02 $712 +$2 +0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 30 $325 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $1,500 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $2,138 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 21 $329 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in April? Apr 21 $355 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $886 −$1 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $1,182 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $2,791 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $1,078 −$1 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $2,166 −$2 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $1,806 −$2 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $1,090 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $461 1h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $560 2h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $560 5h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $410 21h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $410 24h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $267 25h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $267 28h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $262 6d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $262 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $225 7d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $225 7d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $263 8d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $263 9d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $642 9d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $643 9d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $895 12d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $896 12d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $274 13d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,665 14d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $274 14d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,668 14d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,666 14d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,668 15d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,641 15d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,644 15d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,649 15d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,651 15d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,698 21d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,701 21d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,636 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $460.21 · official $460.21 (match) · 445 history records